If it feels like dinner out costs a little more every time you go, you are not imagining it. And it is not just a feeling. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service tracks food prices, and its latest outlook shows restaurant and takeout prices climbing faster than the prices at the supermarket.
According to the USDA Economic Research Service Food Price Outlook, last updated October 23, 2026, prices for food away from home are forecast to rise 3.5 percent this year. Food at home, which is what you buy at the grocery store, is forecast to rise 2.3 percent. All food together is forecast to rise 2.8 percent.
The Numbers in Plain English
Here are the 2026 forecasts of annual price change, along with the range the forecasters give around each figure.
- Food away from home: up 3.5 percent, within a range of 3.4 to 3.7 percent.
- Food at home: up 2.3 percent, within a range of 1.9 to 2.7 percent.
- All food: up 2.8 percent, within a range of 2.6 to 3.1 percent.
It is important to remember that these are percentage changes in prices, not dollar amounts. To picture what they mean, imagine a restaurant meal that cost $20 last year. A 3.5 percent increase would add 70 cents. A $100 grocery bill rising 2.3 percent would add $2.30. These examples are just for illustration, but they show how the percentages translate into everyday spending.
What the Labels Mean
The government uses two terms you will see in headlines. Food away from home covers what you buy to eat outside your own kitchen, such as meals at restaurants. Food at home is what you buy at the store and prepare yourself. When the two numbers move apart, as they do here, it tells you that the cost of letting someone else do the cooking is growing faster than the cost of the ingredients.
The all food figure of 2.8 percent sits between the two, which makes sense, since it blends both categories.
A Longer View
The report also offers some perspective. From 2006 to 2025, prices for food away from home rose an average of 3.5 percent a year. Food at home rose an average of 2.6 percent a year.
So this year’s restaurant forecast of 3.5 percent matches that long-run average exactly. Grocery prices, at 2.3 percent, are forecast to rise a bit less than their average of 2.6 percent. In other words, the story is not that restaurant prices are suddenly exploding. It is that eating out has been getting steadily more expensive for a very long time, and it keeps outpacing the grocery store.
Why It Stings
That steady climb is exactly what makes the price gripe so familiar. A single big jump gets noticed and discussed. A little increase every year goes unnoticed until you look at a menu and realize your usual lunch order is not your usual price anymore. After many years of this, the gap adds up.
It also helps explain why a night out can feel like a bigger decision than it used to be. If menu prices keep rising faster than grocery prices, then cooking at home becomes more attractive over time, simply because of the math.
Ways to Take the Sting Out of Eating Out
Nobody wants to give up the pleasure of a meal someone else cooks. But a few habits can keep the bill in check.
- Pick your moments. Treat dining out as an occasion instead of a default, and you will enjoy it more.
- Look at the menu before you go. Many restaurants post menus online, so you can decide in advance.
- Share a plate. If you like to try a lot, splitting a dish can save money.
- Mind the extras. Drinks, appetizers and desserts often add more to the check than people expect.
- Try lunch. Many places offer lighter or cheaper lunch options than dinner menus.
- Cook your favorites at home. If there is a restaurant dish you love, try making it yourself. Groceries are rising more slowly.
Keep the Forecast in Perspective
A forecast is an estimate, not a promise, and the ranges in the report show it. The forecasters expect food away from home prices to land between 3.4 and 3.7 percent, and food at home between 1.9 and 2.7 percent. Real prices can end up a little higher or lower, and different cities and different restaurants will have their own patterns. Your personal grocery bill and your favorite diner may not follow the national averages exactly.
The Bottom Line
The government’s own forecast backs up what many of us feel when the check arrives. Eating out is forecast to rise 3.5 percent in 2026, compared with 2.3 percent for groceries, and restaurants have been rising faster than the grocery store, on average, for two decades. That does not mean you must stay home. It means being a little more deliberate about when you go, what you order, and what you cook for yourself.
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