For every divorce recorded in the United States in 2024, there were 2.42 marriages, the highest ratio in 16 years, according to a new analysis of federal marriage and divorce data.
The finding comes from the National Center for Family & Marriage Research at Bowling Green State University, which combines U.S. Census Bureau and federal health-statistics data to track the ratio each year. The 2.42 figure is up from 2.38 in 2023 and marks, in the center’s own words, “the largest marriage to divorce ratio since the ACS began collecting information on recent marriage and divorce experience in 2008.”
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That framing cuts against the dominant narrative in most coverage of marriage, which tends to lead with declining marriage rates or rising divorce. CDC provisional data shows the raw marriage rate has held roughly steady in recent years, at 6.1 marriages per 1,000 people in 2023, while the divorce rate has continued a longer decline, dropping from 3.6 per 1,000 people in 2009 to 2.4 in 2023.
Key Points
- 2.42 marriages occurred for every divorce in 2024, the highest ratio since 2008.
- The ratio sat in a narrower 2.10-2.16 range between 2015 and 2021.
- The U.S. divorce rate has fallen from 3.6 per 1,000 people in 2009 to 2.4 in 2023, per CDC data.
Between 2015 and 2021, the ratio hovered in a tighter band of roughly 2.10 to 2.16, according to the same research center, which draws on Census Bureau American Community Survey estimates alongside historical figures from the National Center for Health Statistics. The jump to 2.42 is a meaningfully wider gap between new marriages and marriages ending in divorce than the country has seen in over a decade and a half.
Older CDC figures add useful context, too. In 2000, the national marriage rate was 8.2 per 1,000 people and the divorce rate was 4.0, a ratio similar to today’s despite both numbers being far higher back then. Marriage was simply more common across the board, and so was divorce; the current ratio reflects a smaller, more selective pool of both.
Demographers caution that a rising ratio doesn’t automatically mean marriages are happier or more stable, since it can also reflect fewer people marrying in the first place, which shrinks the pool of couples who could eventually divorce. Even so, the trend marks a break from the “marriage in crisis” framing that dominates the topic, at least by this specific measure, and adds a data point to an ongoing debate among researchers over whether marriage is becoming a more selective, and by some measures more durable, institution even as fewer Americans enter it each year.
