San Francisco is projected to pull in $9.9 billion in visitor spending in 2026, according to San Francisco Travel’s own forecast, a number that would finally clear the city’s 2019 record of $9.6 billion. It’s taken seven years to get back here. The city is projected to draw 24.2 million visitors in 2026, up from 23.7 million in 2025, while hotel occupancy is expected to climb to 69% and the average room rate to $257.81. San Francisco Travel credits a rebuilt convention calendar and steadily recovering demand, even as one major visitor segment still hasn’t come all the way back.
The 2025 numbers already told the story
Before 2026 became the record year, 2025 was the recovery year. Visitor spending reached $9.4 billion, hotel occupancy hit 67.2%, and the average daily hotel rate climbed to $245.38, a RevPAR increase of 14.4% year over year, according to San Francisco Travel’s release. That activity generated $655 million in local tax revenue and supported an estimated 63,900 jobs across the city.
San Francisco Travel President and CEO Anna Marie Presutti connected the numbers directly to the city’s convention business in the organization’s own statement: “The convention pipeline is doing what we built it to do…this is what recovery looks like,” she said.
What’s pushing 2026 past the old record
The 2026 projections build directly on that momentum. San Francisco Travel expects 24.2 million visitors this year, hotel occupancy at 69%, an average daily rate of $257.81, and RevPAR up another 7.9% year over year to $177.85. Put together, that’s the $9.9 billion spending figure that finally clears 2019’s $9.6 billion benchmark, the first time the city’s tourism economy has topped its pre-pandemic peak.
Local reporting adds context the press release doesn’t. Mayor Daniel Lurie has publicly identified tourism as the city’s top industry, ahead of tech and AI, according to CBS News’ reporting on the recovery, which also notes that the Hotel Council of San Francisco has pointed to the hospitality rebound as a factor in closing the city’s budget deficit.
The gap that’s still there
The recovery isn’t uniform. International visitor spending in San Francisco remains roughly $1 billion below pre-pandemic levels, according to CBS News, and Chinese visitor volumes specifically are still about 22% below where they stood before 2020. That matters more than the raw visitor count suggests, since Chinese travelers historically spend two to three times more per trip than domestic visitors and stay longer once they arrive.
That gap helps explain why the recovery has felt uneven on the ground even as the citywide numbers improve. Neighborhood businesses that depend heavily on international tourists, particularly around Fisherman’s Wharf and Union Square, are still waiting on customers who haven’t fully returned, even in a year the overall numbers are setting records.
What this means if you’re planning a trip
For travelers, a record spending year usually comes with a catch: higher hotel rates. San Francisco’s average daily rate is already up more than $12 year over year, and RevPAR growth in the high single digits suggests that trend continues through 2026. Booking early, especially around the city’s rebuilt convention calendar, is a more reliable strategy this year than it was during the slower recovery years, when last-minute rates were often the better deal.
The convention business is also worth watching if you’re trying to time a visit around lower rates. Major conventions compress hotel inventory and push rates up citywide, not just downtown, so checking San Francisco’s convention calendar before booking can be the difference between a $200 room and a $300 one for the same dates.
The flip side is that a fuller convention calendar generally means a livelier city to visit: more restaurants staying open later, more foot traffic downtown, and less of the empty-storefront feel that defined San Francisco’s Union Square and Financial District during the slower recovery years. Visitors who avoided the city during that stretch may find it looks noticeably different than it did in 2022 or 2023.
San Francisco spent years being cited as the cautionary tale of pandemic-era urban recovery. The 2026 numbers, if they hold, mark the point where that narrative stops being accurate, even if the recovery, like the city itself, remains uneven neighborhood by neighborhood.
