Expedia released its Fall 2026 Travel Outlook on August 17, 2026, and the numbers suggest the classic autumn discount is fading. According to Expedia’s own analysis, lodging prices in the 10 most-searched U.S. destinations are running about 20% higher this fall than they were over the summer, while flight prices are up roughly 2%.
The destinations Expedia tracked are the ones travelers search for most: New York, Las Vegas, Orlando, Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, Nashville, New Orleans and Honolulu. Historically, prices in those cities eased once summer crowds thinned out. This year, that pattern largely broke.
What “Shoulder Season” Used to Mean
Shoulder season, the weeks between a destination’s peak and off-peak periods, has traditionally been travel agents’ go-to advice for anyone chasing a deal. Expedia’s report covers bookings for September 7 through November 26, 2026, compared with the May 25 through September 7 summer stretch, and found that gap narrowing across the board.
“Shoulder season is not a given this year, but value is still out there if travelers know where to look,” said Melanie Fish of Expedia Group Brands in the company’s release.
Where the Deals Actually Are
Expedia’s data did surface six destinations bucking the trend, split between beach and mountain getaways. Combined lodging-and-flight savings ranged from modest to dramatic.
- Aspen, Colorado: 45% combined savings, the strongest value in the report
- Anchorage, Alaska: 40% combined savings
- Fort Walton Beach, Florida: 30% combined savings
- San Diego, California: 15% combined savings
- Honolulu, Hawaii: 10% combined savings
- Bozeman, Montana: 5% combined savings
Aspen’s showing is notable given how expensive the resort town gets once ski season begins in December, making the gap between fall and winter pricing especially wide this year. The same logic applies to Anchorage, where prices ease once Alaska’s cruise season winds down for the year, and to Bozeman, a gateway to Yellowstone that quiets down considerably after summer park traffic fades.
Across the six standout destinations, Expedia found average combined savings on lodging and flights of roughly 25%, a meaningfully better deal than travelers will find in the 10 most-searched cities the report also tracked.
The Takeaway for Fall Travelers
The broader message from Expedia’s outlook is that blanket shoulder-season savings can no longer be assumed. Travelers hoping to save money by simply avoiding summer crowds may need to target specific cities instead of counting on the calendar to do the work. Mountain towns coming off a slower summer, along with a handful of beach destinations, currently offer the clearest value before winter pricing takes over.
Expedia’s own outlook frames the shift as a matter of picking the right place rather than the right week. With lodging costs driving most of the fall premium in top-searched cities, travelers who can be flexible on destination stand to save considerably more than those who simply shift their travel dates later into the season.
